Zurich as the centre of the Swiss financial industry seems to have rebounded from the collapse of Credit Suisse. But the Credit Suisse saga is far from over.
Keystone / Michael Buholzer
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December 27, 2024 – 03:00 10 minutesThe Swiss economy has proven to be resilient against global economic volatility and inflationary pressures in recent times. In 2025 the economy is expected to grow at a slightly faster pace but remain below its potential. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), for example, has raised its growth outlook for Swiss gross domestic product (GDP) from 1.4% to 1.5% for the coming year. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) faces the ongoing challenge of balancing controlling inflation with supporting economic growth. Interest rates may remain relatively low, though the central bank may adjust its monetary policy stance depending on global trends and domestic inflationary pressures. A strong labour market, particularly in high-skill sectors, such as finance, pharmaceuticals, and technology, will likely support consumption levels. Inflation is expected to be moderate, providing some relief to Swiss households after a period of rising costs. In many industries wage increases decided for 2025 amount to 1.7-2% and lie above inflation, the Swiss union Unia has reported. This should lead to an actual improvement in real wages. Let us have a closer look at six Swiss key industries:
Elia Bianchi / Keystone
The two big Swiss pharmaceutical companies, Roche and Novartis, will look to gain momentum in 2025 after corporate restructurings. In November, Novartis lifted its 2023-2028 sales forecast in a sign of confidence after top-selling drugs exceeded quarterly growth targets. Roche is hoping a suite of new weight-loss drug candidates will show positive results in 2025 and help cement its place in what analysts predict could be a $100 billion (CHF88 billion) market in ten years. Although it is a newcomer to obesity, Chief Executive Officer Thomas Schinecker told reporters in July he believed Roche could bring the new drugs to market “much faster” than investors expect. The companies’ optimism faces headwinds though. Donald Trump’s return to the White House could lead to sweeping changes on drug prices, public health, and biotech funding in the industry’s largest market. Any attempts by Trump to expand drug pricing negotiations agreed under Biden will likely face strong pushback from industry. Pressure on drug prices is mounting beyond the United States. Even at home in Switzerland, companies will be under more scrutiny to justify the price tag for newly launched therapies amid rising healthcare costs. The Swiss pharma and biotech companies are also bracing for disruptions to global trade if the US and China continue to iso