”A target for Trump is China and European Union, India is really overall a net beneficiary. So, it will be a good meeting and India has really nothing to fear,” says Anurag Singh, Managing Partner, Ansid Capital.Prime Minister Modi’s visit to the United States this week. What is the relevance of that? What is the importance of that?Anurag Singh: Ultimately, it is just a meeting of minds. Prime Minister Modi and both Trump, they just want to get on the same page. India is not a target here in terms of tariffs or any such policy. India is actually a beneficiary ofTrump administration. Much of the business circles believe this. So, it will only be a matter of just getting an alignment that nobody speaks out of turn.Let us not get into this narrative and unnecessary commentary here and there because India is largely a services exporter. So, it will just be getting this firm commitment that Trump will get the kind of support he needs wherever and he can count on India.A target for Trump is China and European Union, India is really overall a net beneficiary. So, it will be a good meeting and India has really nothing to fear. In fact, India has all to gain under the Trump administration and I am really confident that that is the message that is going to come out of this.What about the equity markets? Bereft of, of course, the PM’s visit, that is news flow that we are going to react to in any case, but other than that, does it seem like at least the poison is out of the system? While the big swing and uptick may not have come in, so to speak, but at least we seem to have stabilised for the last two weeks.Anurag Singh: FII money will continue to get pulled out and rather, I am surprised why this quantum is so low because, one, there is a depreciation of rupee, which is pending, so there is that 4% or 5% more to go on rupee, that is one.Second is, it is not that nobody is really pulling money out of India only, it is whole 80% of the funds are active funds and they are all trying to on the margins spare down the stake inemerging markets. Collectively the story is well known that last 10 to 15 years, emerging market as a basket is like 3% to 4% returns, that is not good.So, ultimately, this is going to be a headwind at least in 2025 that emerging markets will see lesser allocation. I mean, of course, it will depend on how the interest rates behave but collectively, I do not know, my sense is that money will continue to get pulled out, which is okay, which is fine, money will come find a way into unlisted space, but money will get pulled out from the listed space which is how it goes really, that is my view, I might be wrong but that is how I tend to think right now.You are sounding bearish to me. Very bearish, that rupees will depreciate, FIIs will flow out. But I will also remind everybody to say that where will the money go. If it goes in US yield, I do not think it makes sense to buy into US yield when we know that it is on a precipitous of getting chall
Mar. Feb 11th, 2025
