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UConn Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Professor Mark Urban has conducted a global assessment of climate change extinctions by analyzing 485 studies and over 5 million projections. His findings, published in Science, reveal that the impacts of climate change are intensifying and that we need to take dramatic action to remain below 1.5C of warming. The study also highlights the critical role of accurate models and predictions in effective conservation policies.
Urban’s meta-analysis provides an overall estimate of extinction risk while accounting for uncertainty. It also allows for the examination of how results vary by different factors, such as species, region, and model assumptions. The analysis shows that methods for predicting extinctions have become more sophisticated over time, incorporating more biological information about individual species.
The most significant finding of the study is that there is increasing certainty that climate change has caused and will continue to cause extinctions. This is a significant development from past assessments, which indicated high levels of uncertainty. The study also identifies the species most at risk, providing valuable information for conservation efforts.
The impacts of climate change on global biodiversity are a pressing concern, and this study highlights the urgent need for action. By providing a comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of extinction risk, Urban’s research can inform decisions about greenhouse gas emissions and help protect vulnerable species. The study also demonstrates the importance of continually updating and improving predictive models to increase certainty and accuracy in our understanding of the effects of climate change.