The Swiss government and the private KOF Swiss Economic Institute have both revised their growth forecasts for the Swiss economy, expecting slower growth in the coming years. According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), the Swiss economy is projected to grow by 0.9% in 2023, down from the previous forecast of 1.2%. The growth forecast for 2024 has also been revised to 1.5%, compared to the previous estimate of 1.6%. These forecasts are below Switzerland’s long-term average growth of 1.8%.
The main factors impacting this slower growth are the weakening global demand, particularly from major trading partners such as Germany and China, which is affecting Swiss exports. However, domestic demand is expected to drive growth in 2024.
There are also potential risks ahead that could further impact the Swiss economy, such as the trade policies of the United States under the incoming Trump administration. The broader international economic and trade policies also remain unpredictable, adding to the uncertainty for the Swiss economy.
On the other hand, the KOF Swiss Economic Institute predicts a slightly higher growth rate of 1.4% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026. They also expect weak foreign demand until mid-2025, with a gradual improvement thereafter.
Overall, the revised growth forecasts suggest a challenging economic environment for Switzerland in the coming years. The slowdown in global demand and potential risks from international trade policies could have a significant impact on the Swiss economy. However, the gradual improvement predicted by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute offers some hope for a recovery in the long term.