Reconciling widely varying estimates of the global economic impacts from climate change 

Assessments of the aggregate impacts of climate change on the global economy are widely varying and diverge depending on the method employed. It is essential to understand the mechanisms behind the differing estimates and identify a robust range. Only then could these estimates meaningfully inform and guide climate actions.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Access through your institution

Change institution

Buy or subscribe

Access Nature and 54 other Nature Portfolio journals

Get Nature+, our best-value online-access subscription

$29.99 / 30 days

cancel any time

Learn more

Subscribe to this journal

Receive 12 print issues and online access

$209.00 per year
only $17.42 per issue

Learn more

Buy this article
Purchase on SpringerLink

Instant access to full article PDF

Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout
Additional access options:

Log in

Learn about institutional subscriptions

Read our FAQs

Contact customer support

Fig. 1: Global aggregate economic impact estimates by global warming level and methodology type (annual % global GDP loss relative to GDP without additional climate change).

ReferencesKotz, M., Levermann, A. & Wenz, L. Nature 628, 551–557 (2024).Article 
CAS 

Google Scholar 
Tol, R. S. J. Energy Policy 185, 113922 (2024).Article 

Google Scholar 
Rose, S. et al. in Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (eds Pörtner, H.-O. et al.) Ch. 16 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2022).Rose, S. K., Diaz, D. B. & Blanford, G. J. Clim. Change Econ. 8, 1750009 (2017).Article 

Google Scholar 
Burke, M., Davis, W. M. & Diffenbaugh, N. S. Nature 557, 549–553 (2018).Article 
CAS 

Google Scholar 
Burke, M., Hsiang, S. M. & Miguel, E. Nature 527, 235–239 (2015).Article 
CAS 

Google Scholar 
Nordhaus, W. D. Am. S