Ever since the modern state rose in the 17th century to become the principal actor in the international system, power has been measured by control over borders, economies and populations. In his thought-provoking new book, Climate Security, Ashok Swain argues that all three are now under threat.
(Cover design: Francis Kenney; photo: Kelly Goonan / US Air Force)
“Globally, more than one-third of the total length of national borders is determined by rivers,” he writes, noting how climate change is shifting these boundaries by altering the hydrological cycle. This is even more extreme in regions where glaciers are receding and Arctic ice cover is vanishing.
Climate-induced disasters are fundamentally reshaping economies, particularly in developing island nations, while also triggering mass migrations – both temporary and permanent – on a scale that is creating a crisis both within and between countries.
Swain’s book is concise, coming in at just over 150 pages, with another 40 devoted to references. It is sharply written and deeply researched, with a wealth of data and examples to back up his arguments. The main argument is that because climate change threatens the core functions of the state, it must be treated as a national security issue to receive the urgent attention it deserves.
Because climate change threatens the core functions of the state, it must be treated as a national security issue
As head of the Department of Peace and Conflict Research at Uppsala University, Swain brings more than three decades of expertise in conflict and environment studies, and is perfectly placed to join the dots. His international background – having grown up and studied in India, taught in Europe, and served as a visiting professor in the US and Malaysia – allows him to connect global perspectives with granular insights. For example, writing on the impact of climate-induced disasters, Swain notes:
Globally, between 1970 and 2019, there have been 11,778 natural hazards leading to 2 million deaths and USD 4.3 trillion in economic losses. Over 90% of all the reported deaths have been in countries with developing economies located in the Global South. On the other hand, countries in the Global North have experienced 60% of the reported economic losses from natural hazards. However, the economic losses in the Global North have been less than 0.1% of the countries’ gross domestic products (GDP), respectively. In contrast, in the least developed economies, 7% of all disasters lead to economic losses greater than 5% of their GDP.
This perfectly sums up the disproportionate suffering of poorer nations. Wealthy counties – the primary emitters of greenhouse gasses – can absorb the financial impact, while poorer countries are overwhelmed. When Hurricane Maria hit the island nation of Dominica in 2017, it “caused damages of USD 1.31 billion, equivalent to around 200% of the country’s GDP. The hurricane destroyed almost all trees and vegetation and e
