President-elect Donald Trump made many promises to the Bitcoin and crypto communities during his presidential run. As he is sworn in for a second term later today, we look at which of them will most likely come to fruition.After successfully choosing the winner of the US election, Polymarket traders are now attempting to predict where he will follow through on his promises.Polymarket data shows high expectations around pardons for the January 6 defendants and Ross Ulbricht, along with possible support for a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Traders are also watching whether new tariffs will be imposed on Mexico or Canada and whether an executive order on crypto will appear on Day 1.PredictionChanceVolumeTrump will create a Bitcoin Reserve in the first 100 days56%$2,598,422Over 40 Executive Orders signed on Day 164%$536,229January 6 protestors pardoned in first 100 days99%$7,952,113Trump will save TikTok in first week92%$327,345Trump will end the Ukraine war in the first 90 days34%$9,281,609Trump will issue a crypto executive order on Day 136%$193,914January 6 protestors pardoned on Day 192%$119,449Trump will sign a national abortion ban20%$605,920Gulf of Mexico renamed to “Gulf of America.”66%$73,02125% tariff imposed on Mexico/Canada31%$448,663Trump will acquire Greenland in 202520%$798,726Trump will declassify JFK assassination files75%$512,872Markets suggest that pardons and selected crypto policies carry the strongest likelihood. Polymarket assigns a 99% chance of pardons for nonviolent January 6 participants in Trump’s first 100 days and a 92% chance for pardons issued on Day 1. Ross Ulbricht, who Trump vowed to free on day one, has an 83% chance of receiving clemency in the first 100 days.There is also a strong indication that TikTok may remain operational despite prior legislation mandating its sale or ban, an outcome with a 92% likelihood by the end of the first week. Another high-chance scenario involves more than 40 executive orders on Day 1, evaluated at 64%.Crypto-oriented moves rank among the top concerns for traders, with over $2 million traded, though their likelihood is lower. A strategic Bitcoin reserve holds only a 56% probability in the first 100 days, and a Day 1 executive order on digital assets, addressing de-banking and fair value accounting, stands at 36%.More likely than either of these crypto reforms is the declassifying of the JFK assassination files (75%) by April 29. It is also more likely (66%) that the Gulf of Mexico could be renamed the “Gulf of America.”Some events appear less certain. Ending the Ukraine conflict within 90 days holds a 34% probability. Polymarket also assigns just a 31% likelihood that new 25% tariffs on Mexico or Canada will be enacted. A potential acquisition of Greenland has a 20% chance, and the possibility of a national abortion ban is assessed at 20%.Some of these items, such as pardons or many executive orders, may occur with little procedural delay. Others, including foreign policy shif
Mar. Gen 21st, 2025
