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The world has been anticipating a La Niña phase for months, with some climate models predicting its arrival in the previous spring. However, despite atmospheric conditions showing signs of the pattern, water temperatures in the Pacific have not reached the required threshold. This raises the question of why La Niña-related events are occurring without an official La Niña in place.
La Niña is the cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and is characterized by lower-than-average sea-surface temperatures. The world last experienced a La Niña event in the spring of 2023 and has been in an El Niño or neutral status since then. However, signs of La Niña’s influence are still evident, such as reduced rainfall over the Pacific, stronger trade winds, and a more active hurricane season in the Atlantic.
It is unclear whether these events are being driven by ENSO or a warming climate with increased water vapor levels. According to NOAA meteorologist Tom Di Liberto, the uncertainty lies in the complex relationship between the atmosphere and ocean, with various factors being affected by climate change.
While NOAA expects a weak La Niña to occur in early 2025, the weather patterns are expected to change as the signal for the event is not strong. The agency believes the ENSO will return to a neutral state by the spring and summer of 2025 and continue in that status for much of the year. This means fewer kinks in the jet stream and more regional weather patterns dominating local conditions.
ENSO-neutral conditions are not known to produce extreme weather events, but they have been accompanied by above-average temperatures in the past two decades. It is unclear whether this is directly caused by ENSO or the ongoing effects of climate change.
Overall, this is a developing story, and scientists are still trying to understand the potential impact of a changing climate on ENSO patterns. However, it is essential to continue monitoring and studying these events to better prepare for their potential effects on our planet.