Lun. Gen 20th, 2025

AbstractTemporary ice roads built by the process of snow compaction, watering, and icing during cold winters are lifelines for land access in remote Arctic. In the context of the Arctic amplified warming, the vulnerability of potential ice roads under the influence of complex climate system remains unclear. Here, we construct a potential ice road assessment model that allows quantization of the climatic suitability of potential ice roads in the Arctic. Using satellite remote sensing and meteorological data, we find changes in surface air temperature and snow cover reduced the climatic suitability of potential ice roads during 1979–2017. Spatially, potential ice roads in North America face more immediate threats due to decreased snow depth compared to Eurasia. Before the end of the 21st century, we project a further decline in the climatic suitability of potential ice roads, primarily due to increasing surface air temperatures and decreasing permafrost stability. Taking precious metal/diamond exploration as an example, we conclude that mining activities associated with ice roads will face access difficulties by 2050–2100 due to the decreased potential ice roads. These results give new insights into the challenges and opportunities of Arctic overland travel.
IntroductionSeasonal ice roads are built through the process of compacting snow, sprinkling water, and freezing ice during Arctic winters1,2,3. Ice roads serve as the important means of community access, resource exploration, and supply delivery in Arctic remote land4,5,6,7. The unprecedented climate change in the Arctic8 is affecting human systems, with transportation standing out as a striking focal point. This is because climate change has divergent effects on Arctic land and sea accessibility9. In addition to accelerating the melting of sea ice and opening sea routes10,11,12,13,14,15, the amplified warming of the Arctic16,17,18,19,20,21,22 is melting the frozen surface to the detriment of land access9,23. However, the stress on ice roads from climate change and subsequent impacts on transportation needs to be understood. Changes in ice road availability due to the unprecedented climate change in the North can impact the amount of minerals, supplies, and food shipped, which can impact not only economy but also the safety of the people4,7,24,25. Therefore, further understanding of the vulnerability of potential ice roads to climate change is of great importance to enhance climate resilience and achieve sustainable development in the Arctic23,26,27.The availability of ice roads is closely associated with natural climatic conditions. Subzero surface air temperature (SAT) is a prerequisite9,28, and sufficiently cold conditions are conducive to ensuring icing efficiency and ice thickness29,30. Moreover, adequate snow cover provides an important role for the construction and persistence of ice roads, e.g., snow serves as natural material for paving roads and p