‘In Mayotte or Valencia, it would be simplistic to attribute the severity of material and human damage solely to climate change’ 

‘In Mayotte or Valencia, it would be simplistic to attribute the severity of material and human damage solely to climate change’ As climatologists working on extreme weather events and the various ways in which climate change affects them, we are regularly called upon by the media when high-impact events take place. The latest examples include Cyclone Chido’s passage over [the Indian Ocean French territory of] Mayotte on December 14 and the intense rainfall in Valencia, Spain, at the end of October.While there is scientific consensus that global warming owing to greenhouse gas emissions is exacerbating certain extreme weather events, it would be simplistic to attribute the severity of material and human damage solely to climate change. To do so would be to divert attention from other major causes and responsibilities relating to the vulnerability of populations and infrastructures. The Mayotte tragedy should therefore serve as a wake-up call, at a time when the French government presented its third national plan for adaptation to climate change in October.How does climate change affect the occurrence and intensity of observed events? This question is addressed by climatologists in the science of extreme event attribution. Attribution studies show, for example, that heatwaves in recent years have been made more likely, and more intense, by climate change.For some extreme events, attribution to climate change is more complex, but the scientific literature – summarized in IPCC reports – points to general trends in a warming climate. Concerning tropical cyclones, for example, attribution studies are generally inconclusive, but we do know that climate change is increasing the intensity of their precipitation.However, the human and material damage caused by a climatic disaster is never the result of an extreme climatic event alone. They occur when such an event is combined with pre-existing vulnerability, such as the economically and socially disadvantaged, elderly, young and/or unhealthy populations, poorly adapted infrastructures and ill-prepared or under-equipped health and emergency services.You have 63.29% of this article left to read. The rest is for subscribers only.Subscribe to continue reading.Get unlimited access to Le Monde in English€2.49/month, cancel anytimeAlready a subscriber? Sign in