In recent years, fresh conflicts have erupted across the globe with alarming regularity, coinciding with a decade of record high temperatures.While the wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East tend to receive the bulk of global attention, there are many other conflicts that are equally severe and protracted. According to analysis from the Peace Research Institute Oslo, 59 conflicts were recorded in 2023, the highest number since the end of the Second World War.
Many people would assume that climate adaptation takes a back seat when confronted with conflict. But new research from the Adaptation Fund provides insights and firsthand experience of successful projects operating within fragile states and conflict-affected countries.
The fund has invested $1.2 billion across 180 projects around the world – and so it’s to be expected that some of these would fall within areas of potential conflict. A number of projects are within countries, such as Mali, where wars have raged for years, while others are in places where sporadic and unpredictable violence can suddenly break out.
Still others are in especially fragile areas, such as the Volta Basin in West Africa, which is highly vulnerable to devastating floods and droughts. Knowing how to quickly respond and adapt is crucial within these different contexts, researchers found.
The study highlights a number of key factors for improving the outcomes of projects in conflict zones: strengthening institutions, ensuring local ownership of finance, allowing for flexibility on climate funding, building strong partnerships and close monitoring are all seen as critical.
Cross-border climate risks can’t be solved in isolation
Climate change is exacerbating instability by weakening institutions, displacing communities and increasing tensions over available food and water. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change drew attention to this in its 2022 climate science report, stating “there is increasing evidence linking increased temperatures and drought to conflict risk in Africa.”
Mikko Ollikainen, head of the Adaptation Fund, commented last year that conflict-affected countries are “among the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and their needs for external assistance are high”.
He added that the fund’s research “reinforces the importance of strengthening institutions in fragile settings to deliver climate finance effectively, and building strong partnerships between governments, civil society and the private sector to ensure proper funding”.
Water conservation in Ethiopia
One case study that demonstrates these complexities is a climate-smart agriculture project in Ethiopia. The $10-million initiative took place between 2017 and 2022, and was designed to increase resilience across seven ‘woredas’ (districts), vulnerable to drought.
These districts included areas both designated as arid and semi-arid, owing to the predominance of drylands throughout the country. This can mak
