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Here’s stark warning in a new report from a group of actuaries: the global economy could face a 50% loss in GDP between 2070 and 2090.
That is if immediate policy actions on risks posed by climate change are not taken.
The report, “Planetary Solvency – finding our balance with nature,” is the fourth report from the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, which was produced in collaboration with climate scientists.
“Increasingly severe climate and nature driven impacts are highly likely, including fires, floods, heat and droughts,” the IFoA report states. “This is a national security issue as food, water and heat stresses will impact populations. If unchecked then mass mortality, involuntary mass migration events and severe GDP contraction are likely.”
The report’s policy recommendations include:
Implementing annual Planetary Solvency risk assessments, leveraging the RESILIENCE principles, reporting to the UN Security Council.
Creating a function with responsibility for producing Planetary Solvency assessments, housed in a body such as the IMF or OECD.
Considering systemic risk officers at supra-national, national and sub-national levels to improve systemic risk management capability.
Rapidly implementing policy recommendations to reduce risk.
Developing tracking of delivery of solutions to mitigate risk.
World Economic Forum
Environmental risks dominate the 10-year horizon of concerns, led by extreme weather events, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, according to a report out this week from the World Economic Forum.
The Global Risks Report 2025 keys in on conflict, the environment and disinformation as the top threats. The report lists the top 10 risks selected by respondents, which include more than 900 global risks experts, policymakers and industry leaders. State-based armed conflict, extreme weather events and geoeconomic confrontation are the top three risks listed.
The report highlights a sense of “declining optimism” from those polled.
“As we enter 2025, the global outlook is increasingly fractured across geopolitical, environmental, societal, economic and technological domains,” the report states. “Over the last year we have witnessed the expansion and escalation of conflicts, a multitude of extreme weather events amplified by climate change, widespread societal and political polarization, and continued technological advancements accelerating the spread of false or misleading information.”
The risks associated with extreme weather events are a concern for the year ahead, with 14% of respondents selecting that risk.
“The burden of climate change is becoming more evident every year, as pollution from continued use of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas leads to more frequent and severe extreme weather events,” the report states. “Heatwaves across parts of Asia; flooding in Brazil, Indonesia and parts of Europe; wildfires in Canada; and hurricanes Helene and Mi